THIS WORLD Will Israel Bomb Iran? Tx Date: 3rd May 2005 This script was made from audio tape – any inaccuracies are due to voices being unclear or inaudible 10.00.00 This World Theme Music 10.01.05 Music 10.00.10 Narrator During this summer’s war with Hezbollah, an Israeli patrol under Colonel Efroni is headed for the place on the northern border where the Lebanese militia first crossed into Israel in July. 10.00.22 Lt. Colonel Ishai Efroni Let’s go now. 10.00.24 Music 10.00.27 Narrator This road separates Israel from Lebanon; it has become the front line in the conflict. 10.00.34 Lt. Colonel Ishai Efroni Right; that’s where the war started, here. This is the place where Hezbollah kidnapped the soldiers. 10.00.43 Narrator Hezbollah’s militants allegedly have support from Iran. The colonel is looking for clues that they are directly involved. 10.00.50 Lt. Colonel Ishai Efroni Piece of the, one of the mortars that was shot here when the kidnap took place. That’s a hundred and twenty millimetre shell, made in Iran. 10.00.58 Music 10.01.03 Narrator But to Israel, Iran poses an even more deadly threat. Its president calls publicly for the elimination of what he terms ‘the Zionist regime.’ 10.01.12 Benjamin Netanyahu I believe him because he’s building the weapons for this extermination. And everything that we know says that if he can get away with it, he’ll do it. 10.01.21 Music 10.01.24 Shimon Peres Iran is the only member of the United Nations that threatens publicly to destroy another member of the United Nations. It is a call for genocide. 10.01.33 Music 10.01.35 Narrator Israel’s military and political leaders are convinced that Iran is developing nuclear weapons. This is the inside story of their thinking on how and when to deal with that threat. 10.01.46 Avi Dichter Once a leader like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is repeating again and again the intention of how he is going to use such a nuke bomb, we can not wait and count the days until it will happen. 10.02.01 Music 10.02.01 Title Page Will Israel Bomb Iran? 10.02.06 Explosions/Music 10.02.13 Narrator On July the twelfth, within hours of a kidnap raid by Hezbollah soldiers, Israel launches air strikes into southern Lebanon. Hezbollah fires dozens of katyusha rockets across the border into Israeli towns. 10.02.26 Music 10.02.29 Narrator Casualties on both sides are severe and the conflict escalates into all out war. 10.02.33 Music 10.02.38 James Reynolds Right now, Israelis feel under attack. Katyusha rockets fired by Hezbollah have been landing here in northern Israel and in other towns. And Israel’s message to Hezbollah, to those firing the rockets will be this; Israel will go after its enemies, no matter what the consequences. 10.02.56 Music/shelling 10.03.00 Narrator The international community criticises Israel’s air strikes for being ‘disproportionate’, and causing heavy casualties in civilian areas. 10.03.09 Aston JAN EGELAND Humanitarian Affairs, United Nations This seems to me an excessive use of force in an area with so many civilians. 10.03.15 Jeremy Bowen If it’s an excessive use of force that makes it a war crime. 10.03.19 Jan Egeland It makes it a violation of, of, of humanitarian law. 10.03.24 Narrator Hezbollah is accused by Amnesty International of breaching humanitarian law by deliberately targeting civilians. Israel claims that behind the scenes, Iran is actively supplying the militants. 10.03.36 Aston AMOS GILAD Senior Advisor to the Israeli Defence Minister We consider them the long arm of the Iranians. They have fourteen thousand rockets that are threatening Israel and they are supporting terror. 10.03.46 Music 10.03.49 Narrator Israel’s troops repeatedly find evidence of what they say is Iran’s involvement. Inside an abandoned Hezbollah bunker, Iranian pictures are on display alongside the group’s own leaders. 10.04.01 Music 10.04.05 Narrator Throughout the fighting, Colonel Efroni claims Iran’s fingerprints have been visible around Hezbollah. 10.04.10 Music 10.04.14 Aston LT COLONEL ISHAI EFRONI Israeli Defence Forces What we found during the fighting, a lot of ammunition and anti-tank missiles that come from Iran. New ammunition, not something that you got twenty years ago. Fresh missile made in two thousand and four, two thousand and two. Someone have to bring them to Hezbollah, it’s not something they can buy in the market, it’s not something they can buy off the counter. There’s a co-operation between the two, Iran and Hezbollah and you can see it everywhere. 10.04.45 Narrator Despite its overwhelming military superiority, when the guns fall silent, Israel still cannot claim complete victory. 10.04.57 Narrator In the wider middle east, the celebrations of what is seen as Hezbollah’s Islamic victory spread from Beirut to Cairo and Tehran. But in Israel, intelligence is emerging of what is perceived there as a far greater danger than Hezbollah. 10.05.13 Music 10.05.25 Narrator A few miles from Israel’s beachfront, Arrow interceptor rockets stand ready to shield the country from incoming missiles. The launch system has recently been upgraded and it can now deal with the possibility of nuclear warheads potentially fired from Iran. 10.05.41 Music 10.05.49 Narrator Israel is incredibly guarded about its defence systems. This satellite control room is a high security area, which keeps constant watch over Israel’s surveillance satellites. This is a rare view inside. 10.06.02 Music 10.06.06 Narrator For over a decade, Israel’s military has been studying Iran’s research sites. They are now convinced that under cover of its peaceful nuclear energy programme, Iran is developing atomic weapons. 10.06.17 Music 10.06.20 Aston BENJAMIN NETANYAHU Israeli Prime Minister 1996-99 A month after I was elected, I said that the greatest threat we all face, not just Israel but all of the free world is a nuclear armed Iran. This was ten years ago. That warning fell at that time on hollow ears; the arming of Iran with atomic bombs, ayatollahs with atomic bombs is a palpable threat to all of us. 10.06.43 Narrator Moshe Yaalon is the former chief of staff of Israel’s armed forces. He is rarely interviewed but he believes Israel is facing such a serious threat from Iran that he is willing to speak out. 10.06.57 Aston MOSHE YAALON Chief of Staff, Israeli Defence Forces 2002-2005 This Iranian regime is determined to have the indigenous know how in terms of producing nuclear bomb. We should prevent them the know-how otherwise it will be up to them to decide when to produce, how to use the bomb. 10.07.20 Music 10.07.26 Narrator This country is obsessed with its own safety from attack. The army is part of every citizen’s life, with Israel continually on guard against potentially hostile neighbours. 10.07.37 Music 10.07.40 Aston EHUD BARAK Israeli Prime Minister 1999-2001 You sometimes feel very lonely at the chair of the prime minister of Israel. I was once talking to, to Clinton compared it, I said, that you know, to run America is like driving on a wide highway. To lead Israel is like walking on a rope, having to balance yourself with every slight mistake you can slip down in an irrevocable way. 10.08.06 Music/gunfire 10.08.14 Narrator Israel’s history consists of wars with the Arab nations all around it. In the nineteen sixty-seven six day war, it fought the armies of Egypt, Jordan and Syria. 10.08.25 Music/gunfire 10.08.34 Narrator Israel’s overwhelming air power destroyed the Egyptian air force in a matter of hours. In Israel, it was regarded as a victory in a fight for survival they had to win. 10.08.45 Music 10.08.49 Aston MAJOR GENERAL MORDECHAI HOD Commander Israeli Air Force 1966-73 We used the spirit and we used another thing which maybe doesn’t exist in any other air forces in the world, and we call it the ‘no alternative’ and when you don’t have alternatives, you can achieve such achievements as we did in this war. 10.09.06 Music 10.09.08 Narrator But even then Israel was developing an alternative which could make it invulnerable in the Middle East. For the last forty years, the state has been protected by its own nuclear arsenal; as many as two hundred warheads according to the Carnegie Institute. Yet Israel has never resorted to using them. 10.09.25 Music 10.09.28 Aston SHIMON PERES Israeli Prime Minster 1984-86/1995-96 In fifty-eight years, we were attacked five times by armies, three times by Intifada, we were outgunned, outnumbered, there was a danger to our existence, yet when we started our nuclear option, I told to then President of the United States who asked me about it, President Kennedy, I told him Israel does not intend to introduce nuclear weapons to the Middle East and that remains our policy to this very day. 10.10.00 Music 10.10.04 Narrator Simon Peres began Israel’s nuclear research centre at Dimona nearly fifty years ago, yet it officially remains a state secret. Israel calls its policy ‘nuclear ambiguity.’ 10.10.16 Music 10.10.18 Shimon Peres Ambiguity is not a bomb, ambiguity is an attitude and if the ones who want to destroy Israel have an ambiguous fear it is ok. Then you don’t need bombs. 10.10.32 Music 10.10.33 Narrator But with the perceived threat from Iran, cracks are starting to appear in Israel’s commitment to its policy. 10.10.40 Aston PROFESSOR ISAAC BEN-ISRAEL Head of IDF Research and Development 1991-97 Let’s say the Iranian will explode an experimental device. It’s very dangerous for Israel to know that Iran has this capability and to let the Iranian think that maybe we don’t have it. 10.10.57 Benjamin Netanyahu If an Arab or a Muslim country acquires and wields nuclear weapons, this will force a re-alignment in the entire Middle East, in the world in fact and certainly Israel will have to consider its long held policies as well. 10.11.12 Music 10.11.16 Narrator If it is threatened, Israel’s first line of defence would be here. 10.11.19 Music 10.11.22 Narrator The army’s huge array of conventional weapons are developed by a highly sophisticated defence industry, boosted by over two billion dollars a year in US subsidy to buy American arms. 10.11.32 Music 10.11.34 Narrator At the Rafael Missile Factory in northern Israel, a site rarely filmed; state of the art weapons are being put together. 10.11.41 Music 10.11.46 Aston DROR SHACHNAI Rafael Missile Division The Popeye is a very accurate missile, the pilot sees on the small screen, sees the target and can direct the missile in a very accurate way and even he can choose a window, back door, whatever, very precise. 10.12.06 Narrator The man who designed Israel’s defence systems for many years believes this precision technology is crucial to his country’s survival. 10.12.14 Professor Isaac Ben Israel We are outnumbered by our neighbours and the only way to survive in this hostile Middle East is to develop those technologies that will give us some qualitative edge upon the numbers. 10.12.30 Music 10.12.33 Narrator Despite this technological advantage, the alleged nuclear weapons project in Iran presents Israel’s leaders with a new order of threat. 10.12.41 Music 10.12.44 Aston AVI DICHTER Israeli Minister for Public Security For the first time since the establishment of Israel fifty- eight years ago, we are viewing in front of us an existential threat against Israel. 10.12.55 Aston ZVI STAUBER Head of Strategy, Military Intelligence 1992-1995 The big problem is the conjunction between extremist ideology and military capability. Like your neighbour, he has a gun and he declares everyday that he is going to kill you, that’s the big problem. 10.13.10 Music 10.13.14 Narrator Israel’s fears are distilled in this man, Iran’s president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Two months into his presidency, he issues a death sentence against Israel. 10.13.25 Graphic 27 Oct 2005 Channel 10 News Israel 10.13.26 Newsreader Voice over There’s been strong condemnation of the Iranian president’s demand for the destruction of Israel, coming after the country launched its first satellite into space today. It has prompted calls for Iran to be removed from the UN. 10.13.38 Music 10.13.41 Narrator In Farsi, Ahmadinejad’s words are; ‘the regime occupying Jerusalem’, that’s Israel, should be ‘eliminated from the pages of history’. 10.13.51 Music 10.13.52 Narrator On this issue, Israel’s most senior politicians speak with one voice. The prime minister even creates an advisory group made up of his predecessors to discuss the Iranian threat. 10.14.02 Benjamin Netanyahu I think when you face a threat unlike anything we’ve seen, a threat to the very existence of a country that Iran says it could wipe out with one bomb then it’s something that is beyond politics. 10.14.20 Narrator On the streets of Israel, President Ahmadinejad’s statement is regarded as bordering on a declaration of war. The defence minister’s most senior intelligence adviser believes Israel should be on its guard. 10.14.33 Amos Gilad Iran is not suggesting to exterminate the United States or Europe or Saudi Arabia. They declare very clearly that their goal is to destroy Israel and based on the historic lessons and based on the understanding of the nature of this leadership it’s recommended to listen to them seriously and to react accordingly. 10.15.05 Shimon Peres Nobody would like to see another genocide. A nuclear bomb can become a concentration camp, a flying bomb, a flying camp. Nobody would like to see a comeback to the times of the Nazis. 10.15.22 Music 10.15.26 Narrator Israeli soldiers are conducting a regular emergency rescue exercise, based on the premise of a large rocket hitting a primary school. The exercise assumes the rocket is fired from outside Israel with a conventional warhead. 10.15.39 Music 10.15.45 Narrator But Israel’s leaders are deeply conscious that the same type of missile fired from Iran could carry a nuclear payload. And for those Israelis who have fought in previous conflicts, the possibility of an atomic strike is a reminder of how fragile Israel is. 10.16.00 Music 10.16.03 Ehud Barak I carry with me an old experience from times as a young colonel in the Yom Kippur war. I remember calling my wife at the end of the fighting; I remember her crying over the phone when she heard the list of all our friends who were killed through this. And then I came back to California and when I went to the first football game afterwards, I realised that if we did not manage to win this war, Israel would become a part of history and not a single football game would have been cancelled. And I carried this memory with me to the chair of the prime minister. Ultimately we are standing alone. 10.16.44 Music 10.16.50 Narrator In the past, this feeling of isolation has led Israel to go it alone. In nineteen eighty-one, Iraq was on the point of acquiring nuclear power. 10.17.01 Narrator The Osirak reactor was an experimental plutonium plant. The fear was it could ultimately be made to produce weapons grade fuel. 10.17.09 Music 10.17.13 Narrator With America then supporting Saddam Hussein, Israel decided to step in and destroy the reactor by itself. 10.17.20 Music 10.17.27 Narrator General Eytan Ben-Eliyahu was one of the pilots involved in the raid. He later served as the commander of the Israeli Air Force. 10.17.34 Music 10.17.41 Aston EYTAN BEN-ELIYAHU Commander, Israeli Air Force 1996-2000 You wake up in the morning, you know that there is going to be a very important flight today. You try to balance between your mission, your ideology to your fear. 10.17.54 Music 10.17.57 Narrator The Israeli Air Force used its brand new F-16 fighters to spearhead the mission, flying low along the Saudi border and taking the Iraqi defences by surprise. 10.18.05 Music 10.18.08 Eytan Ben-Eliyahu Everything was done under full secrecy. Saddam Hussein was busy in a war against Iran so the best idea was to sneak in, in silence and then the day after everybody understood it. 10.18.24 Music 10.18.26 Eytan Ben-Eliyahu You did feel in every single minute that you are going to step into something that is going to be historic. 10.18.35 Music 10.18.41 Aston EHUD BARAK Israeli Prime Minister 1999-2001 At that time we could by a single strike eliminate the Iraqi capacity for, we believed at the time five to eight years, eventually it ended up that it was forever. 10.18.52 Music 10.18.56 Eytan Ben-Eliyahu Everything went smooth, not even one single mistake and the mission was accomplished a hundred percent, maybe more than a hundred percent. No failures, no casualties. You feel it for the rest of your life actually that you participated in something which maybe not have changed the world but changed the destiny of your country. 10.19.21 Music 10.19.24 Narrator In Israel, it was seen as proof that a unilateral strike could work against a nuclear threat. 10.19.30 Music 10.19.35 Ehud Barak Ah, but at the time we should remember the whole world condemned Israel for, for doing this. From, from the Europeans to President Reagan only to agree years later how far sighted Prime Minister Begin of Israel was by ordering our air force to destroy it. 10.19.59 Narrator As Israel’s latest generation of pilots passes out, some Israelis are calling for another pre-emptive strike. 10.20.12 Avi Stauber The point with Iran is very simple; Iran is determined at this moment to achieve nuclear capabilities. It has the scientific infrastructure; it has the resolve, and the money. And it’s not easy to stop Iran. 10.20.29 Music 10.20.33 Narrator Bushehr in Western Iran, where the country’s first nuclear reactor is about to become operational. Iran says the use of atomic technology to generate power is permitted under international treaty but Israel’s military elite is growing increasingly alarmed. 10.20.49 Music 10.20.54 Aston MOSHE YAALON Chief of Staff, Israeli Defence Forces 2002-2005 In the nineties, we realised that they had clandestine military nuclear project. What for? It’s not for energy; it’s not for self-defence, so we identified the first signs of early warning regarding to Iranian nuclear capability. 10.21.17 Music 10.21.21 Narrator Israeli intelligence have kept a close watch on the inheritor of this long-term project, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, since he came to power last year. 10.21.29 Music 10.21.32 Narrator They know relatively little of his early life. He trained as a civil engineer and after Ayatollah Khomeini came to power, he joined the revolutionary guard. 10.21.41 Music 10.21.48 Narrator Some Israelis think the president’s attacks on Israel are a call for approval from the wider middle east. 10.21.53 Music 10.21.57 Aston PROFESSOR DAVID MENASHRI Centre for Iranian Studies, Tel Aviv University All the statements against Israel and rhetoric about denial of the holocaust, I think they are meant to make the Iranian nuclear issue appear as the problem of Israel. Ahmadinejad is telling the Muslim world and Europe primarily; well this is not your problem, our enemy is Israel. 10.22.19 Aston Feb 2006 Channel 10 News Israel 10.22.19 News reader Voice over After cartoons satirising the Prophet Mohammed were published around the world last year, the Iranian newspaper Hamashari has run a competition of drawings on the theme of the holocaust. 10.22.31 Narrator Nothing could be more guaranteed to provoke Israelis. It’s perceived as a deliberate insult to their most sensitive history. And it follows several very public denials of the extermination camps by President Ahmadinejad himself. 10.22.46 Aston BENJAMIN NETANYAHU Israeli Prime Minister 1996-99 He says the holocaust didn’t happen. He said six million of my people who were burned and gassed by the most savage regime in history, that they didn’t die, that this is a hoax. Anybody who perpetrates the big lie is preparing the big massacre. 10.23.08 Band music 10.23.16 Narrator Israel has monitored Iran’s military ever since the nineteen seventy-nine revolution. Their closest attention is now given to the series of longer range missiles devised in Iran, based on North Korean prototypes. 10.23.32 Aston PROFESSOR ISAAC BEN-ISRAEL Head of Research and Development 1991-97 They have already developed a missile called the Shihab 3, with a range enough to cover the distance between Iran and Israel. They are working on Shihab 4. And they have also worked on designing at least of applying this missile to carry a nuclear warhead. 10.23.58 Narrator According to reported Israeli intelligence, the newer versions of the Shihab would reach not just Israel but Western Europe. 10.24.05 Professor Isaac Ben-Israel A nuclear warhead is something which is effective against cities, against populated areas. There’s no difference between a city like Tel Aviv or maybe Hiroshima. 10.24.17 Music 10.24.25 Narrator At such moments, Israel turns to its closest ally, which is determined not to allow Iran to have nuclear weapons. 10.24.31 Music 10.24.38 Narrator Washington does not believe that Iran is in the business of peaceful nuclear energy. 10.24.44 David Albright It’s not iron clad, but there’s a pretty strong circumstantial evidence case that they have a nuclear weapons programme. 10.24.49 Music 10.24.51 Narrator David Albright worked for the International Atomic Energy Agency, the world’s nuclear regulator and he believes Iran is hiding its true aims. 10.25.00 David Albright There’s a line at E?fahan, looks like it’s to make uranium into metal for a nuclear weapon. Iran says it’s to make you know, nineteen point nine percent enriched uranium fuel but Iran doesn’t need that kind of fuel. 10.25.12 Aston DAVID ALBRIGHT Institute for Science and International Security Iran was working on making polonium two ten, which has almost no use beyond initiator of a nuclear weapon. 10.25.22 David Albright This is the Esfahan uranium conversion facility. It’s a large place. One interesting thing here is that they’ve built a tunnel complex, so you can see they’re thinking through the problem of military strike. 10.25.35 Music 10.25.37 Narrator President Bush says he will not permit a nuclear armed Iran. But Israel’s strategists have their doubts about America’s resolve to take direct military action. The Bush administration has too much at stake. 10.25.49 Professor Isaac Ben-Israel What stops the Americans from doing it is not lack of power or lack of technology or lack of adequate weapons, what stops them is the political issue. 10.26.03 Music 10.26.06 Narrator To the Israelis; this is the dilemma. If Iran’s nuclear project continues unchecked and America does not act militarily, unthinkable as it may seem, Israel’s leaders may decide to go it alone. 10.26.20 Aston ZVI STAUBER Head of Strategy, Military Intelligence 1992-1995 I cannot visualise on issues that are very critical for the well being of the state of Israel, that the state of Israel will do something not, at least which it does it with agreement with the United States. But at the end of the day it is our security, it is our children, it’s our future. 10.26.42 Music 10.26.46 Narrator For the time being, Israel is prepared to wait, though its leaders believe the diplomatic moves to halt Iran’s enrichment programme are playing into the hands of Iranian negotiators. 10.26.58 Aston JAVAD ZARIF Iranian Ambassador to the United Nations Iran has an inalienable right to develop nuclear technology for peaceful purposes and Iran has been prepared to go out of its way in order to ensure and to assure the international community that its programme would remain exclusively peaceful. 10.27.18 Narrator Israel’s diplomats are not convinced. According to the foreign minister, Iran is just trying to buy time in the belief that once it possesses nuclear weapons, it will be unstoppable. 10.27.31 Professor David Menashri When they see that there have been three countries in the axis of evil, Iraq, Iran and North Korea, see what happened to Iraq and what did not happen to North Korea. The conclusion viewed from Tehran is if you want to avoid what happened to Iraq you have to be in the position that North Korea is in today. 10.27.56 Music 10.27.58 Narrator Much depends on Israel’s assessment of how far Iran has progressed at Natanz, its heavily guarded uranium enrichment centre. 10.28.05 Music 10.28.09 Narrator The plant is based on nineteen seventies technology bought in the eighties on the nuclear black market. It houses lines of centrifuges which spin uranium gas at a thousand revolutions a second to make fuel for nuclear reactors. The more centrifuges in a line, the quicker the gas can become weapons grade fuel. 10.28.29 Singing 10.28.33 Narrator This spring, President Ahmadinejad organised a theatrical set piece to announce a breakthrough to the world. Iran had enriched uranium to the low grades required for reactor fuel. 10.28.49 President Ahmadinejad Voice over I am officially announcing that Iran has joined the group of those countries which have nuclear technology. This historic achievement is the result of the Iranian nation’s resistance and is the beginning of greater and greater progress and success for the country. 10.29.10 Narrator Avi Dichter is the former head of Israel’s security service, Shin Beit, who now sits in the Israeli cabinet. He believes Iran’s nuclear agenda goes further than the president is admitting. 10.29.22 Aston AVI DICHTER Israeli Minister for Public Security There is no doubt about the fact that Iran is building a new bomb. All intelligence services around the globe, whether it’s the CIA, the MI6, the European other intelligence services and the Israeli Mossad and the Israeli intelligence of the army, all of them are sharing the same information about the intention of Iran to build a nuke bomb. 10.29.47 Music 10.29.54 Narrator Iran is currently allowing international inspectors only limited access to their nuclear sites. 10.29.58 Music 10.30.07 Aston SHIMON PERES Israeli Prime Minister 1984-86/1995-96 I don’t think that Iran will hesitate to cheat and take the opportunity of appearing as though they look for civilian energy and in fact trying to produce military bombs. 10.30.20 Music 10.30.24 David Albright You could have the development of a parallel programme that’s undetected, at some point Iran would get enough centrifuges operating and produce enough highly enriched uranium for a bomb and you wouldn’t even know what happened. 10.30.37 Music 10.30.39 Narrator Opinions vary on how long it would take Iran to actually construct a warhead; anything from three to ten years. But for Israel’s military leaders, that is not the point. 10.30.49 Music 10.30.50 Moshe Yaalon We all are speaking about the question of, of a couple of years not more than that, so in this timetable something should be done in order to stop this extremist regime. 10.31.07 Narrator Israeli intelligence reportedly believes that Iran will reach the point of no return no later than the summer of two thousand and seven. 10.31.14 Avi Dichter I was an Air Marshal and I was trained to open fire towards a terrorist once I identified two things; one that he has a mean of warfare, a pistol, a hand grenade, etc, and the second that he has an intention to use it in order to kill innocent people. Israel is not going to, to wait until the first nuclear bomb is going to be dropped on Israel. 10.31.45 Music 10.31.52 Narrator Israel’s leaders believe the defining moment when Iran proves that it can produce weapons grade uranium is just around the corner. 10.31.58 Music 10.32.04 Aston MOSHE YAALON Chief of Staff, Israeli Defence Forces 2002-2005 As a last resort, the west should be ready to launch military strike to deal with Iranian nuclear capabilities. But Israel should be ready to deal with this kind of threat, if anyone else doesn’t do it. 10.32.28 Narrator In August, the Israeli press reported that the head of Israel’s air force was masterminding the Iran front. 10.32.36 Narrator Israel already has squadrons of the long-range F-15 and F-16 fighters at bases in the Negev desert. General Ben-Eliyahu has assessed the challenge they might face based on his own experience as a pilot. 10.32.50 Aston EYTAN BEN-ELIYAHU Commander Israeli Air Force 1996-2000 You have to think about, nothing but the mission, a hundred percent focus on what you do, a hundred percent ready to surprises because fighting in the air, you know, surprises can come from every direction at every single second. 10.33.06 Narrator Military analysts predict that in a real raid, the planes would head out over Jordan and across Iraq, splitting off to attack the key targets. The heavy water plant at Arak, the Esfahan conversion factory, the new reactor at Bushehr and the enrichment site at Natanz. 10.33.21 Music 10.33.24 Narrator And Israeli intelligence reportedly knows of other, hidden sites that are more difficult to destroy. 10.33.29 Music 10.33.31 Ehud Barak Some of them are well dug into the side hills with hardly any conventional weapon being able to penetrate. Others in crowded urban areas where any attack could end up with civil collateral damage. 10.33.50 Music 10.33.52 Eytan Ben-Eliyahu There are a lot of targets which makes it difficult, you know, but on the other hand it is difficult for them to protect it. 10.34.00 Music 10.34.02 Narrator Israel’s pilots are armed with precision guided weapons, including huge US bunker busting bombs, designed to detonate beneath the surface and capable of penetrating two metres of concrete. 10.34.13 Music 10.34.17 Eytan Ben-Eliyahu There is one thing that you shouldn’t think about, you shouldn't be afraid and you should not think about the option that you might not get back home. 10.34.27 Music 10.34.30 Narrator Analysts say the raids would take place at first light, despite the increased risk from anti-aircraft fire and missile defences. 10.34.37 Music/explosion 10.34.43 Narrator For now, it is just training. But reports suggest that Israel has already devised detailed plans for the raid. 10.34.53 Eytan Ben-Eliyahu With a good planning, it can be done, no doubt about it. 10.34.58 Aircraft/explosion 10.35.06 Narrator During this year the Iranian army has flexed its muscles repeatedly, readying itself for a potential Israeli attack. Israel’s military recognises that any raid on Iran’s nuclear sites could unleash a terrible revenge. 10.35.22 Aston JAVAD ZARIF Iranian Ambassador to the United Nations Iran for its part is ready to defend itself. We’re not provoking; we do not want to engage in hostilities, but we will certainly be prepared to defend ourselves if that is imposed on us. 10.35.37 Music 10.35.41 Narrator If Iran is attacked and strikes back against western shipping in the Persian Gulf, where the Iranian navy has dozens of bases, the price of oil could be the first casualty. 10.35.50 Music 10.35.54 Narrator But many Israelis fear a concerted backlash from the Islamic world, of which they would bear the brunt, with Hezbollah militants renewing their rocket attacks on northern Israel. This summer’s conflict could prove just the first stage in a more protracted war. 10.36.09 Music 10.36.13 Narrator Israel’s defence ministry also thinks that Iran has powerful influence over the militants of Islamic Jihad and Hamas. Israel could face renewed violence anywhere in the world. 10.36.23 Music 10.36.26 Aston EHUD BARAK Israeli Prime Minister 1999-2001 The Iranians showed a lot of capacity to sew terror in different corners of the world so organisations without any fingerprints or through other extremist organisations. 10.36.42 Professor Isaac Ben-Israel We will have to take care of every Jew everywhere in the world, if we use force against Iran. 10.36.51 Music/air raid siren 10.36.57 Narrator In some Israelis’ eyes, the possibility of nuclear attack on Israel’s cities is so horrific that the government must act to prevent it. 10.37.06 Ehud Barak The real immediate concrete danger is that once Iran turns nuclear, the controls of the world, the advanced world on proliferation will be lost forever. And you might find in a decade from now a crude nuclear device in the hands of a terrorist group. 10.37.31 Narrator The raid on the nuclear plant at Osirak twenty-five years ago shows that Israel is prepared to go it alone at a moment of crisis. Many Israelis think such a time may now be approaching again. 10.37.42 Music 10.37.46 Amos Gilad The moment they get it and start to frighten the whole Middle East and the whole world and Israel and to increase their support for terror, it can be too late. 10.37.57 Benjamin Netanyahu I believe the President of Iran Ahmadinejad when he says he intends to exterminate Israel, to wipe it off the face of the earth. I believe him because he’s building the weapons for this extermination. And everything that we know says that if he can get away with it, he’ll do it. 10.38.14 Music 10.38.18 Avi Dichter Once a leader like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is repeating again and again the intention of how he is going to use such a nuke bomb, we cannot wait and count the days until it will happen. 10.38.34 Music Credits 10.38.37 Narrator MICHAEL LUMSDEN Camera BOAZ ESHTAI RONI KALDERON EYAL ZAHAVI GIL MEZUMAN AMOS REFAELI NEIL HIGGINSON Sound EREZ NOFERBAR RAVID BIRAN NIR SHREIBER Dubbing Mixer GRAHAM KIRKMAN Colourist NICK ADAMS Online Editor FRED BAILLOD Production Team EFRAT SUZIN NOAM IDAN DOLLY BURLES SUNNY DIMITRIADOU Production Co-ordinators JO HEAVER JENNY JARVIS Production Manager JANE WILLEY Unit Manager SUSAN CRIGHTON Film Research BARRY PURKIS Research GOLINAR MOTEVALLI Picture Editors JULES CORNELL GRAHAM TAYLOR Series Producer LOUISE NORMAN Produced by NOAM SHALEV Directed by CHRIS BOULDING 10.38.42 Narrator For more information on tonight’s programme or to view it again, you can visit our website on bbc.co.uk forward slash This World. If you’d like to be reminded about upcoming This World programmes, text ‘This World’ to 81010 to receive our free text alert service. 10.38.46 bbc.co.uk/thisworld Text THISWORLD to 81010 Your initial text to us costs no more than 15p 10.39.02 thisworld 10.39.03 Editor KAREN O’CONNOR BBC © BBC MMVI 10.39.05 End BBC This World: Will Israel Bomb Iran? 1