Possible smart sanctions

Strict embargo on military imports Retain control of Iraqi oil Travel restrictions on top officials Target regime's finances abroad Improve humanitarian image of sanctions

Faced with the failure and growing international unpopularity of the current sanctions, London and Washington are proposing what they are calling "smart sanctions".

These are supposed to be better targeted. Nobody is talking about a new UN Security Council resolution - the council is so divided on Iraq that this would probably be impossible - but a substantial shift in emphasis is anticipated.

They will aim to hamper and inconvenience the Iraqi Government's leading officials and prevent Baghdad acquiring weapons of mass destruction.

Need for change

The smart sanctions will, British and American officials hope, kill off the widespread perception that sanctions cause great suffering for ordinary Iraqi people.

Analysts say the blanket embargo on Iraqi imports has widely discredited economic sanctions because of the constant hold up of essential goods because they could have military applications.

The new sanctions will aim dispel the idea that they cause Iraqis suffering

In the past Baghdad has ridiculed the embargo by claiming that pencil imports, for example, were banned because of the possible military use of the graphite.

Critics of smart sanctions say teh authorities will be less concerned about the measures being genuinely smart, and more concerned with making the sanctions regime more presentable.

Targeting the regime

US officials are considering trying to impose travel restrictions on Iraqi officials close to President Saddam Hussein.

This appears to have worked to some extent in the case of Serbia, where the European Union banned 600 named supporters of President Slobodan Milosevic from travelling in Europe.

Colin Powell says there is support in the Mid-East for his new sanctions ideas

The freezing of foreign bank accounts could seriously cramp the foreign business activities of Iraqi officials, but this might have limited impact because of Iraq's tremendous oil wealth.

It has also been suggested that war crimes indictments might be pursued against President Hussein and some of those close to him.

Arms

The smart sanctions are supposed to shift the emphasis from monitoring everything that Iraq imports, to allowing all imports except specific items with clear military applications.

This, the reasoning goes, will stop a build up of weapons and the development of weapons of mass destruction.

The new sanctions are not likely to give Iraq control of its oil

Such an embargo would need the co-operation of all of Iraq's neighbours as well as weapons and military technology manufacturers around the world.

After a recent tour of the Middle East, US Secretary of State Colin Powell said that his ideas for new sanctions on Iraq got a warm welcome in the region.

If this means Iraq's neighbours - Jordan, Syria and Turkey in particular - are seriously committed to helping block arms sales to Iraq, a targeted and strict arms embargo might be effective.

Oil revenues

British officials say it is very unlikely that London and Washington will, in the short term, give Iraq control of its oil revenues.

The UN skims off money from an Iraqi oil revenues account to feed Iraq's Kurds, compensate Kuwait, and, when they were in action, pay for the weapons inspectors.

It is estimated that that $24bn dollars of Iraqi oil revenues were under UN supervision last year, and that despite increased smuggling, only $1.5bn was under direct Iraqi control.

Tighter border controls aimed at stopping arms imports could also clamp down on the oil smuggling.