Article: published on 26 March 2026
Greengrocer Chris Bavin
Why are food prices rising?
- Published
Headlines have been filled with reports that food prices will soar as a result of the conflict in the Middle East.
Greengrocer Chris Bavin joined BBC Morning Live with some much needed reassurance to explain what's really going on with the supply chain at the moment.
Why could UK food prices rise again despite falling inflation?
Food prices in the UK may continue to edge upwards in the coming months, despite a broader slowdown in inflation, experts have warned.
Headline inflation has eased to 3%, but food inflation remains higher at 3.5%, according to the latest figures from the British Retail Consortium (BRC). Although this marks a slight fall from January's 3.9%, analysts stress that "slowing" inflation does not mean prices are coming down, only that they are rising more slowly than before.
A System Under Strain
The UK's food system remains vulnerable to a combination of global and domestic pressures.
The country relies heavily on imported produce and operates a "just in time" supply model, meaning even minor delays can quickly lead to shortages and price spikes. Recent extreme weather in southern Europe and North Africa, including heavy rainfall in key growing regions, has disrupted supplies of strawberries, raspberries, avocados and peppers.
Labour shortages, particularly among HGV drivers and farm workers, continue to add pressure.
However, the most significant factor, analysts say, is global instability. Ongoing conflict in the Middle East has pushed up oil and gas prices, increasing the cost of transport, fertiliser and food production. These higher costs ripple through the supply chain and eventually reach consumers.
How the food supply chain works
The food supply chain covers every stage from farm to plate:
Farming: seeds, fertiliser, animal feed
Production: growing crops and raising livestock
Processing: turning raw ingredients into food products
Transport and distribution: moving goods via lorries, ships and warehouses
Retail and catering: supermarkets, wholesalers and restaurants
Any disruption at one stage can affect the entire system. Several pressures are currently converging, raising concerns about further price rises.
The National Farmers' Union (NFU) has warned that some costs may be absorbed by farmers and businesses, but "some costs will inevitably be passed on to the consumer". NFU president Tom Bradshaw said the price of cucumbers, peppers and tomatoes could rise in the next six weeks due to higher natural gas prices, which are used to heat greenhouses.
Fertiliser and fuel costs are also expected to push up prices for field crops and milk over the next three to six months. The BRC has cautioned that disruption to global shipping routes may further affect availability and pricing.
What can shoppers do?
Experts say there is no need for panic buying, stressing that the UK continues to have ample food supplies and that most disruptions are temporary.
However, households can take practical steps to manage rising costs:
Keep a small buffer of essentials such as pasta, rice and tinned goods, but avoid stockpiling.
Shop little and often to reduce waste and avoid panic driven bulk buying.
Choose seasonal, UK grown produce, which is often cheaper.
Consider frozen fruit and vegetables, which offer good value and nutrition.
Use discount apps and loyalty schemes, with shoppers saving between 17% and 25% on average through supermarket loyalty cards.
Explore community grocers, which sell surplus food at reduced prices. Some require membership criteria, such as being on certain benefits or working in specific sectors.
Check whether your employer offers discounts, particularly in teaching, the military or emergency services.
How to make your food go further
Households can also stretch their food budgets by adjusting how they cook and plan meals.
Bulk out dishes with lentils, beans and pulses.
Use leftovers creatively, for example turning roast chicken into a curry.
Store food correctly, as the waste charity WRAP estimates that £17 billion of edible food is thrown away each year, costing the average household of four around £1,000.
Plan meals and take packed lunches, which can be significantly cheaper than supermarket meal deals.
Grow simple produce at home, such as cut and grow salad leaves.
For those struggling, food banks and charities, including the Trussell Trust, continue to offer support.