Gorton and Denton by-election 'too close to call'

As parliamentary by-elections go, Gorton and Denton is certainly a big one.

While 26 February will be a major test of support for the Labour government in Greater Manchester, it will also be huge for two very different parties aspiring to become an electoral force here.

On the right we have Reform UK and on the left the Green Party.

Let's set the scene in the constituency first.

It has more than 76,000 potential voters spread across Denton on Tameside and Gorton, Levenshulme and Burnage in Manchester.

It is one of the most diverse constituencies in the country and has some of the most deprived council wards.

In Denton, you have got predominantly white and working-class residents in areas such as Haughton Green.

Gorton is more mixed before you head into south Manchester and a larger Muslim population.

Overall, just over a quarter of potential voters in the constituency are of Muslim heritage.

It is an area where some of the frustrations of modern Britain are widespread and prevalent - cost of living pressures, children growing up in poverty, a shortage of affordable homes and NHS appointments.

While this Westminster constituency was only created through boundary changes in 2024, its historical voting record is clear.

Labour has dominated in parliament, and the party has always controlled the local council too.

In 2024, Labour won all but one council seat in the constituency, with second places going to the full range of parties in different wards.

At that year's general election, the MP who has just retired due to ill health, Andrew Gwynne, received 18,000 votes, 13,000 ahead of Reform UK. The Greens came third, another 300 or so votes further behind.

The Workers Party of Britain, who are not standing this time, came fourth, with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats another 1,000 further in the slip stream.

With those historical numbers, it is easy to see why Labour, Reform UK and the Greens are claiming this by-election is a battle between only the three of them.

So, what are they saying to potential voters?

After two bruising years in government, Labour is desperate to hang on to Gorton and Denton.

That ambition perhaps will not be helped by the situation in which Gwynne stepped down.

Gwynne, who was a health minister, had been on sick leave for months after being suspended over his involvement with the Trigger Me Timbers Whatsapp group, in which he and local councillors made offensive comments about residents and colleagues.

Nationally, the party's been on the ropes with the fallout from the Peter Mandelson scandal and questions about Sir Keir Starmer's future as prime minister.

Add into the mix the controversy over Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham being blocked from standing as Labour's candidate, and you can see why the city councillor they chose instead, Angeliki Stogia, is saying she is focused on local issues, unity and fairness.

Labour insists this by-election is a "two-horse race" between them and Reform UK, and accuses Nigel Farage's party of being divisive and "far right".

Its candidate, academic-turned GB News presenter Matt Goodwin, suggests he is on the brink of one of the "biggest shocks in British political history".

He argues Labour have taken the area for granted for decades and says many residents agree with his anger over the benefits bill and illegal migration.

Reform UK is pitching this by-election as a referendum on Starmer, telling those who are unhappy with the prime minister that this is their chance to make that point and potentially force him out.

Farage has been frequently and enthusiastically visible so far during the campaign.

The Greens are after Labour voters too, with their leader Zack Polanski also a regular presence on the campaign trail.

They see opportunity in attracting those who are more left-leaning and disgruntled, with a strong stance in support of the Palestinian people and criticism of how Labour's handled the crisis in Gaza.

The Greens hope their position will attract support from the constituency's Muslim population in particular.

Their candidate Hannah Spencer, a plumber and Trafford councillor, says she is offering "hope over hate" while urging the public to give them a try.

Labour argues a vote for anyone but them risks Reform UK getting in.

Meanwhile, Reform UK appears happy to sit back and let Labour and the Greens split the left-of-centre vote in the hope that is what ultimately carries them to victory.

One big question is where do the nearly 4,000 Workers Party of Britain supporters from 2024 go?

The decision of George Galloway's party to stand aside for the Greens could prove decisive.

Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats and Conservative campaigns have been low-key in comparison.

A former police officer stands for the Tories, a former Gorton councillor is running for the Lib Dems.

They are on the ballot paper but are they really in the conversation about who might win?

How many votes they can attract, though, could still be consequential, as could the level of support that the six smaller parties standing can attract.

At the Runcorn and Helsby by election last year, Reform UK overturned a similar-sized Labour majority by just six votes.

Evidence, perhaps, that every single vote may count.

So while Gorton and Denton can be viewed as a two or three-horse race, all the other riders will certainly play their part.

You can expect announcements about the significance of this by-election to get louder as we approach polling day.

There is a lot a stake for the candidates, all their party leaders and, more importantly, for the people of Gorton and Denton.

You can find the full list of all 11 candidates standing in the by-election here.

Listen to the best of BBC Radio Manchester on Sounds and follow BBC Manchester on Facebook, X, and Instagram. You can also send story ideas via Whatsapp to 0808 100 2230.