North East cold deaths 'did not rise as expected'

Colder temperatures are not linked to more deaths in north-east England, unlike the rest of the country, a UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) study suggests.

The government agency said the finding was "somewhat unexpected" and "not fully understood".

The body's head of extreme events and health protection Dr Agostinho Sousa said the result needed to be treated "cautiously" and could be related to several factors, such as the population being more used to the cold but also potential issues with the way the study was done.

Sousa said the team could not point to a "single most likely explanation" for the finding and more research was needed.

The study looked at three "cold episodes" between the winters of 2024 and 2025.

It defined these episodes as periods where the mean daily temperature across England fell below 2C (35.6F) for two or more consecutive days.

The team modelled the number of deaths which occurred during these periods "over and above" the number of deaths they would typically expect in that time if the cold weather had not occurred.

They called these deaths "cold-associated".

The study estimated the country had experienced 2,544 cold-associated deaths during these three periods and the strongest link between cold temperatures and the risk of dying was in those aged 85 and older.

The team also analysed the figures regionally using region-specific temperature data.

This analysis found cold-associated deaths in all regions except the North East, which Sousa said was a bit surprising "especially given its colder climate".

He said the findings could be explained in various ways such as the fact that people in colder regions, such as the North East, may live in homes with better insulation or may simply be more acclimatised to lower temperatures.

"Adaptation is plausible, but this analysis wasn't designed to test it," he said.

Sousa said there may also have been fewer respiratory viruses circulating the region during the period they studied, which could have affected their findings.

He also said the way the estimates were calculated could have affected the results.

For example, the North East's smaller population means there is a bigger day-to-day variation in the number of deaths the region sees each day, Sousa said, which therefore could have affected the team's statistical models.

"More detailed regional analysis over a longer period is needed to confirm whether the North East pattern is real and what is driving it," he said.

He said the UKHSA planned to investigate the findings it had made in the North East further.

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