Monthly Outlook

This week will continue to be wet and occasionally windy, with wintry precipitation on the hills and icy conditions overnight for some.

Next week is expected to be somewhat milder, but a colder spell may follow the week after. The cold may last until mid-February at least.

Changeable and less cold

Storm Chandra will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to some areas on Wednesday, although it moves north-westwards away from the United Kingdom so winds should ease somewhat.

The rest of the week will see high pressure trying to expand from Scandinavia into the Iceland-Greenland region, but Atlantic low pressure systems will continue to compete with this. As a result, the weather will stay changeable or unsettled through the remainder of this week. There will be further rain, some heavy, and it may become windy too.

Temperatures will vary day by day, region to region. In general the coolest conditions will be for Scotland and Northern Ireland, where temperatures will be near or a shade below average. That means that there will be the risk of slight overnight frosts and slippery road conditions at times. However, no notably cold air is expected.

Temperatures should be a little above average in the south and south-west and it should be largely frost free, although some chilly nights are possible, especially at first.

Overall, there will be a slight increase in temperatures through the end of the week as winds turn more south-westerly ahead of an approaching low pressure system.

Unsettled and slightly warmer

A similar pattern is expected to continue in the following week. So, further Atlantic low pressure and frontal systems will try to push across from the south-west but should tend to slow or stall near the UK as they encounter resistance from high pressure to the north-east of the UK.

This will result in bands of rain continuing to move slowly north and east across the country, with snow occasionally possible on the leading edge as these precipitation bands encounter colder air to the north and east.

Most of the wintry precipitation should still be over the hills and mountains, but potentially at lower levels in the north. The northern UK will have brighter and more showery conditions more often.

Central and southern portions of the UK will have temperatures above normal, while the north and north-west are more likely to be close to normal. Colder risks are increasing towards the end of next week, though.

Colder for a while then probably milder

A generally colder set-up is expected during the second week of February, with relatively good agreement among the forecast models.

Accordingly, a stronger push of high pressure could come in from the far north-west towards the UK, which might mean colder air wins out for a while. Even the southern UK could see temperatures at least slightly below seasonal values.

As a result, there should be drier and brighter conditions, but wintry showers would still be possible, while more widespread bands of rain and snow could creep in from the south and west at times.

A change may come at some point, with milder air slowly encroaching farther north and north-east around and beyond the middle of the month. This will bring wetter and, above all, windier weather. Therefore, frontal rain bands should return, preceded by a chance of snow on the leading edge. Milder weather would take the longest to reach Scotland.

Questions remain as to when this transition might occur and whether Scotland will remain cooler than the rest of the UK.

In Friday's outlook, we will be able to confirm the milder trend for next week and establish when the next cold spell is expected to arrive.