Monthly Outlook

Settled periods of weather are expected during the second half of March, with less precipitation than usual.

By early April there is a risk of things turning chillier while staying mostly drier than normal.

Mostly dry. A warm couple of days in some areas

High pressure will dominate weather conditions throughout the rest of this week. On Wednesday and Thursday the weak remnants of a front could give a little patchy light rain or drizzle over parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland but most of the UK will stay dry.

There will be plenty of sunshine across much of England and Wales, and it will be warm with maximum temperatures widely in the mid to high teens. However, there will be large variations between daytime and nighttime, and a slight frost is possible in places overnight.

From Friday into the weekend there is little sign of rain, although on Sunday there is a chance of a scattering of showers in the south-eastern corner of the UK. Sunshine is going to become less reliable as cloud increases, and there will be chances of overnight and morning fog patches.

It's going to cool down steadily towards seasonal levels, with maximum temperatures on Sunday in the single figures in some northern locations, and closer to the low double digits in southern regions. Some eastern coastal areas could feel a bit chillier in east to northeasterly breezes.

More changeable. Variable temperatures

High pressure should slip away and become centred to the south-west of the UK, allowing a couple of frontal systems to move across during the first half of next week. These will bring wet and windy spells, with the heaviest rain in northern and western regions.

In between there should be a brighter, chillier interlude with winds swinging around to the north-west, bringing scattered showers. These could be wintry over higher ground, especially in the northern half of the UK.

The second half of the week could see drier conditions returning, with high pressure reasserting itself closer to or across the UK. Although one or two weak fronts might bring a chance of some patchy light rain, it will probably not amount to much, and precipitation amounts should be below or close to average for the week overall. With calmer conditions developing, there will be an increased risk of overnight and morning fog patches.

Small differences to this rather blocked pattern could change the outlook. For example, if high pressure were to stray west of the UK, then there would be a risk of colder and unsettled weather lingering into the second half of the week.

Potentially colder. Drier than usual

By early April the outlook has particularly low confidence. Again, that is due to the likelihood of a sluggish, blocked pattern continuing. There are indications that the strongest high pressure anomalies could drift to the north or north-west of the UK, maybe near Iceland, and this would bring chances of colder flows from the northerly quarter. The risk of a significantly cold outbreak is rather low but on average temperatures could be a little below seasonal values for the week.

It should be drier than normal but there will be occasional chances of showers, some wintry, perhaps more probable in eastern and southern areas if the expected set-up evolves. Calmer nights elsewhere would lead to risks of frost and fog overnight and early morning.

If high pressure were to settle closer to or across the UK, the weather would be largely dry and a bit milder, but chilly and foggy nights would also be likely.

In Friday's update we will see if a colder, blocked pattern still looks like the most likely outcome by the start of April, and we can take a look farther into the month.