Monthly Outlook

Drier and warmer conditions should develop through the coming week.

Relatively settled weather should bring drier-than-usual conditions through late March and into early April, although temperatures could turn cooler

Turning milder and drier after the weekend

The weekend will be rather chilly, with sharp, hit-and-miss showers developing across many areas of the UK on Saturday, turning wintry over higher ground. In between, there will be periods of sunshine, but showers will be quite widespread across western Scotland, with snow in the Highlands.

Winds will ease for a while but strengthen again through Sunday as a band of frontal rain moves east and southeastwards, followed by another showery air mass.

More rain will arrive from the Atlantic on Monday, but high pressure building over the near continent could keep much or all of it away from southern areas, especially the Southeast. High pressure will then become the dominant feature through the rest of the week.

On Tuesday, there may be further rain and strong winds in some northern and western areas, while much of the country experiences a breezy but drier and warmer day with some sunshine.

From Wednesday onwards, high pressure near or over the UK should ensure plenty of dry weather. Some fairly cold and foggy nights will be possible, but by day there should be some warm sunshine for most places.

However, easterly breezes could develop, making some eastern coastal regions feel chillier at times.

Drier than normal

Uncertainty in the forecast increases through late March. It looks like high pressure will remain near the UK, but the question is exactly where it will be positioned. It seems most likely that it will settle to the north, which should mean plenty of dry weather for most areas.

However, it could open the door to low-pressure systems to the south and bring a couple of bouts of rain across the southern half of the UK. Nevertheless, most areas will probably see lower precipitation totals than normal.

With winds from the easterly quarter for a few days — brisk at times — it could feel chilly along eastern coasts. However, most areas will have temperatures a little above the late-March average, at least initially.

Towards the end of the month, high pressure could migrate to an area northwest of the UK, which would bring north to northwesterly winds, seasonal temperatures, and a chance of showers.

In this sluggish "blocked" pattern, a risk to the forecast is that high pressure could settle farther south, allowing rain-bearing frontal systems to move in from the Atlantic, especially into northern and western regions — hence the low confidence in the outlook.

Quite settled for a while longer

In early April, high pressure anomalies are most likely to remain at high latitudes and extend towards the UK.

There are currently no reliable signs of a notably cold outbreak, although that remains a slight risk. Instead, day-to-day temperatures will most likely fluctuate around the average for early April.

It could be chilly enough for early-morning frost in places, along with patches of fog when conditions are calm enough.

It should remain drier than normal for the most part, although there will be chances of at least some showery outbreaks developing—possibly wintry over higher elevations in the north—perhaps eventually bringing precipitation totals closer to seasonal levels.

However, the precipitation and wind outlooks carry the greatest uncertainty.

In Tuesday's update, we will see if this blocked pattern is still the most likely outcome for late March and early April.