Monthly Outlook

Changeable through the coming week, with some colder days by midweek and a chance of some wintry showers.

The following week or two should be somewhat milder with more settled conditions as high pressure builds at times.

Colder by midweek

Most places will stay dry through Saturday with some sunshine once any early fog patches have lifted. However, northern and western Scotland will be cloudier with a little patchy rain or drizzle possible.

On Sunday, that could encroach into southern Scotland, Northern Ireland and the north of England as a weakening front moves south-eastwards. Wales and the rest of England could see morning fog patches again, followed by some sunshine but cloudier skies later with a low chance of a few spots of rain.

On Tuesday, a band of frontal rain will slowly progress south-eastwards across the UK with strengthening winds, but southern and eastern England could stay largely dry until late in the day.

Showery and blustery conditions will follow, and Wednesday will turn colder as winds swing north-westerly, so some showers will be wintry, especially over northern hills and mountains.

Showers should become fewer on Thursday as a high pressure ridge crosses but an Atlantic front will try to move through around Friday, and could be preceded by some high-ground snow as it runs into the colder air. The weekend is uncertain but could see a return of high pressure and drier conditions.

Drier than usual

At the end of March and into the first week of April, the UK's weather will most likely be influenced by a high pressure ridge extending north-eastwards from the Azores, with low pressure favouring areas towards Iceland and Greenland.

As a result, there should be below-average precipitation amounts for most areas but occasional Atlantic frontal systems are still likely to pass through, although weakening as they move south and eastwards and encounter high pressure.

That should mean Scotland seeing wetter weather than elsewhere, especially the north and west. Otherwise, a couple of calm nights could lead to risks of frost and fog patches.

Despite the chance of chilly nights, temperatures should be near or a little above seasonal values, dependent on the exact position of high pressure. If it were to settle a little further south a greater preponderance of south-westerly flows could lead to warmer conditions.

Blocked pattern likely to continue

The UK will most likely find itself under the influence of high pressure through to the middle of April, which should mean a continuation of drier-than-normal weather. However, conditions are going to be highly dependent on exactly where this sets up.

Initially, this pattern should deliver near to above average temperatures, although there is the possibility of fairly cold and foggy nights for some areas.

Eventually, the strongest high pressure anomalies could become positioned towards the north or north-west of the UK, maybe near Iceland and Greenland, and this would bring chances of chillier flows.

However, the risk of a significantly cold outbreak is rather low.

If low pressure systems were to develop closer to the UK, there could be the potential for wetter weather to develop.

In Tuesday's update we will see if high pressure still looks like the most likely outcome for the start of April and what that means for the Easter weekend.