Igihe ntarengwa cya Trump ku muhora wa Hormuz kiregereje ariko ibihugu byo muri Aziya byamaze kugirana amasezerano na Iran

Ku wa mbere, Perezida w'Amerika Donald Trump yakangishije kurimbura Iran "mu ijoro rimwe" niba itemeye amasezerano yo kongera gufungura umuhora wa Hormuz bitarenze saa mbili z'ijoro (20:00) ku isaha y'i Washington DC kuri uyu wa kabiri, ni ukuvuga saa munani z'ijoro (2:00) zo ku wa gatatu ku isaha yo mu Rwanda no mu Burundi.

Ariko na mbere y'icyo gikangisho gishya cye, ibihugu bimwe byo muri Aziya byamaze kugirana amasezerano na Irani atuma amato yabyo akoresha iyo nzira y'ingenzi cyane mu bwikorezi bwo mu mazi magari.

Ibihugu byo ku mugabane w'Aziya – icya vuba aha cyane ni Philippines – mu buryo bw'umwihariko byashishikajwe no kugirana amasezerano na Irani kuko ubukungu bwabyo bucungira cyane ku ngufu ziva mu Kigobe cy'Abarabu.

Iyo nzira y'ingenzi cyane yateje ubushyamirane bukomeye nyuma yuko Irani yihimuye ku bitero byo mu kirere by'Amerika na Israel, igakangisha kugaba ibitero ku mato anyura muri uwo muhora.

Ibiciro by'ibikomoka kuri peteroli byaratumbagiye kuva habayeho ihungabana kuri iyo nzira ifunganye y'amato, inyuramo kimwe cya gatanu (1/5) cy'imitwaro y'ingufu zikoreshwa ku isi.

Mu cyumweru gishize, Trump yavuze ko Amerika idacyeneye ibikomoka kuri peteroli byo mu Kigobe cy'Abarabu.

Yashishikarije kenshi ibihugu bicungira ku ngufu zo muri ako karere kohereza amato y'intambara mu muhora wa Hormuz ndetse agafata iya mbere mu gutuma ubwikorezi bushobora gusubukurwa.

Mu byumweru bya vuba aha bishize, ibihugu byinshi byo muri Aziya – birimo Pakistan, Ubuhinde na Philippines – byagiranye amasezerano na Iran yo kureka amato amwe akanyura muri uwo muhora mu mutekano. Ubushinwa na bwo bwemeye ko amato yabwo na yo yakoresheje uwo muhora.

Hari ibibazo bikiriho birebana n'urwego uko kwizezwa umutekano kugeraho ndetse n'uburambe ayo masezerano na Irani azagira.

Ntituramenya niba uko kwizezwa umutekano kureba gusa amato amwe n'amwe cyangwa amato yose y'igihugu runaka, nkuko bivugwa na Dimitris Maniatis, wo mu kigo cy'ubugishwanama ku ngendo z'amato cyitwa Marisks cyo mu Bugereki.

Nyamara, ibihugu bicyeneye ingufu zo mu Kigobe cy'Abarabu ubu birimo kubona ko bigomba gukorana na Irani kugira ngo bishobore gusubukura ubwikorezi bunyura muri uwo muhora, nkuko bivugwa na Profeseri Roc Shi wigisha kuri Kaminuza y'Ikoranabuhanga ya Sydney muri Australia.

Umusaruro wa dipolomasi

Igihugu cya Philippines ni cyo cya vuba aha cyane giherutse kugirana amasezerano na Irani.

Abategetsi bo muri Irani bizeje "inzira itekanye, nta nkomyi kandi yihuse" ku mato yose ya Philippines anyura muri iyo nzira yo mu mazi magari, nkuko bivugwa na Theresa Lazaro, Minisitiri w'ububanyi n'amahanga w'icyo gihugu cyo muri Aziya y'amajyepfo ashyira uburasirazuba.

Yavuze ko ayo masezerano – yagezweho nyuma y'"ikiganiro cy'ingirakamaro cyane cyo kuri telefone" yagiranye na Irani ku wa kane – ari "ingenzi cyane" mu gufasha gutuma haboneka ingufu n'ifumbire.

Philippines itumiza 98% by'ibikomoka kuri peteroli byayo mu burasirazuba bwo hagati ndetse yabaye igihugu cya mbere cyatangaje ibihe bidasanzwe mu gihugu mu rwego rw'ingufu, nyuma yuko ibiciro by'ibikomoka kuri peteroli muri icyo gihugu byikubye inshuro zirenga ebyiri nyuma yuko intambara y'Amerika-Israel na Irani itangiye.

Haracyari ugushidikanya ku bivugwa na Irani ko uwo muhora ufunguye ku bihugu byose uretse Amerika n'inshuti zayo, nkuko bivugwa na Roger Fouquet, umushakashatsi wo mu Kigo cy'Amasomo ajyanye n'Ingufu cyo kuri Kaminuza Nkuru ya Singapour.

Yavuze ko Philippines, akenshi ikunze kubonwa nk'inshuti y'Amerika, ari urugero ruteye amatsiko rushobora kumvikanisha ko Irani "ishaka gushyira mu byiciro".

Yagize ati: "Uko bigaragara Irani irimo gutandukanya hagati y'urugaga rw'icyo gihugu no kwitabira intambara kwayo."

Ibindi bihugu na byo byagiranye ibiganiro na Irani.

Ku itariki ya 28 Werurwe (3) uyu mwaka, Pakistan yatangaje ko Irani yemeye kureka amato 20 mu mato yayo ikanyura mu muhora wa Hormuz.

Minisitiri w'ububanyi n'amahanga wa Pakistan Ishaq Dar yagize ati: "Iki ni ikimenyetso cyiza kandi cyubaka cya Irani kandi ni icyo gushimwa."

"Ibiganiro, dipolomasi n'ingamba nk'izo zo kubaka icyizere ni byo nzira yonyine igana imbere."

Irani yahaye ikaze ku mugaragaro amato y'Ubuhinde anyura muri uwo muhora.

Mu cyumweru gishize, ambasade ya Irani mu Buhinde yatangaje ku rubuga nkoranyambaga rwa X iti: "Inshuti zacu z'Abahinde ziri mu biganza bitekanye, nta kibazo."

Iyo ambasade yabivuze ubwo yasubizaga ubundi butumwa bw'ibiro byayo muri Afurika y'Epfo buvuga ko "Irani na Oman byonyine" bizafata icyemezo kuri ejo hazaza h'umuhora wa Hormuz.

Minisitiri w'ububanyi n'amahanga w'Ubuhinde Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, muri Werurwe yabwiye ikinyamakuru the Financial Times cyo mu Bwongereza ko inzira inyuramo amato yabwo atwaye ibikomoka kuri peteroli ari umusaruro wavuye muri dipolomasi.

Ubushinwa, igihugu cya mbere kigura ibikomoka kuri peteroli byinshi cyane bya Irani, na bwo mu cyumweru gishize bwemeje ko amwe mu mato yabwo yambutse uwo muhora, nubwo butavuze Irani cyangwa ngo butange amakuru arambuye kuri ayo mato.

Umugore uvugira minisiteri y'ububanyi n'amahanga y'Ubushinwa yabwiye abanyamakuru ati: "Nyuma y'ubuhuza-bikorwa n'impande bireba, amato atatu y'Ubushinwa aherutse kunyura mu Muhora wa Hormuz. Turashimira impande bireba ku bw'ubufasha zatanze."

Amakuru ava ku mbuga zikurikiranira hafi ingendo z'amato agaragaza ko nubwo intambara ikomeje, utugunguru tubarirwa muri za miliyoni tw'ibikomoka kuri peteroli bya Irani byafatiwe ibihano n'Amerika twagejejwe ku Bushinwa mu byumweru bya vuba aha bishize.

Ubushinwa bufitanye umubano mwiza wa dipolomasi na Irani ndetse bwifatanyije na Pakistan mu kugerageza gutuma habaho agahenge hagati y'Amerika na Irani.

Ibyo tutaramenya

Hari urujijo ku byashingiweho kugira ngo amato amwe n'amwe abe yarashoboye guhabwa inzira itekanye – no kumenya niba yarishyuye kugira ngo anyure muri uwo muhora.

Mu mpera y'icyumweru gishize, ubwato bw'Ubuyapani butwaye gaze isanzwe itunganyije bwanyuze mu muhora wa Hormuz, nkuko kompanyi y'ubwikorezi bwo mu mazi magari yitwa Mitsui OSK Lines yabibwiye BBC.

Iyo kompanyi, yirinze kugira icyo ivuga ku bijyanye no kuba haba hari amafaranga yishyuwe no ku kuntu abatwaye ubwo bwato bahawe inzira itekanye, yagize iti: "Umutekano w'ubwato n'ababurimo bose byemejwe."

Muri Werurwe uyu mwaka, Malaysia na yo yavuze ko amwe mu mato yayo atwara ibikomoka kuri peteroli yemerewe na Irani kunyura muri uwo muhora. Minisitiri w'intebe wa Malaysia Anwar Ibrahim yashimiye Perezida wa Irani ku bwo guha inzira amato y'igihugu cye.

Anthony Loke, Minisitiri wo gutwara abantu n'ibintu wa Malaysia, yavuze ko ibyo byagezweho kubera "umubano mwiza wa dipolomasi ifitanye na leta ya Iran", nkuko byatangajwe n'ibitangazamakuru byo muri Malaysia.

Ntibisobanutse niba andi mato ya Malaysia na yo azemererwa kuhanyura.

Hafi bibiri bya gatatu (2/3) by'ibikomoka kuri peteroli Malaysia itumiza mu mahanga biva mu Kigobe cy'Abarabu.

Ingaruka z'aya masezerano ku bindi bihugu ziracyateje urujijo. Urugero, niba ibindi bihugu bizahindura bikandikisha amato yabyo mu bihugu byemerewe kunyura muri uwo muhora.

Amato menshi atwara ibikomoka kuri peteroli ubu akoresha amabendera y'ibihugu nka Panama n'ibirwa bya Marshall, ibyo bihugu bikaba bitaremerewe inzira itekanye, nkuko Maniatis yabivuze.

Ariko, Shi, ya nzobere mu bukungu bujyanye n'iby'ingufu wo kuri Kaminuza yo muri Australia, yavuze ko nubwo aya masezerano ari "intambwe ikomeye ya dipolomasi" yatewe, atari umuti w'ikibazo.

Ntibiramenyekana igihe uku kwizezwa umutekano muri uwo muhora bizamara, n'ukuntu ibikorwa (operations) bya gisirikare byo mu karere bizabigiraho ingaruka.