Intambara y'Uburusiya na Ukraine: N'iki gishoboka mu mugambi w'amahoro?

Perezida aheruka gutorwa muri leta zunze Ubumwe za Amerika - Donald Trump yiyemeje kuzorangiza intambara ya Ukraine ‘mu munsi umwe’.

Mu gihe urugamba rushushe ku rubuga rw’intambara, aho Ukraine yahawe uruhusha rwo gukoresha ibisasu vya Misire birasa kure vya ATACMS n’ibisasu bitegwa mw'ivu vyo mu bwoko bwa ‘anti-personnel mines’, n'ibihe bishoboka mu nzira yo kurangiza iyo ntambara mu mahoro?

Mu gihe co kwiyamamaza, Donald Trump ntiyatanze mw’ido n’ido uko azobigenza mu kurangiza iyo ntambara, kandi benshi mu bihweza utuntu n’utundi barizeye ko umugambi wo kurangiza iyo ntambara ukiriko urigwako.

Ubutegetsi bwa Kyiv bwaritanze mu gukeka ko perezida aheruka gutorwa azotangura ibiganiro hagati y’Uburusiya na Ukraine, aho perezida Zelensky yaseruye icifuzo co kurangiza iyo ntambara mu mwaka uza wa 2025, ‘biciye mu nzira y’imigenderanire n’ibihugu (diplomatic means).

Ariko none bisigura iki? Bishobora kuvamwo iki cokwitegwa mu biganiro nk’ ivyo biramutse bibaye, canke hariko haraba iki ku rwasiro rw'ibirometero1000, gishobora kugira ingaruka ku wobaye umwumvikano wovuye muri ivyo biganiro?

Ibihinduka ku rugamba: Ingabo z'Uburusiya zirasatiriye, zitera zija imbere.

Ku rubuga rw’intambara Abarusiya bagiye bagira amahirwe kuruta, aho hose urugamba rutonze iyo hava hakagera.

Ingabo z’Uburusiya ziriko ziratera zisatira mu buseruko mu karere ka Donmbass, zongera zerekeza mu gisagara ca Kupyansk mu karere ka Kharkiv mu buraruko bushira ubuseruko, ndetse no mu muji wa Zaporizhzhia, umugwa munini wo mu karere k’ubumanuko bushira ubuseruko.

Mu kwezi kw’icumi, Uburusiya bwifatiye ibindi birometero kwadrato 500 (500km2) vy’ubutaka bwa Ukraine – ikirere batari bwafate kuva mu kwezi kwa gatatu mu 2022 mu ntango z’intambara.

Uko perezida Zelensky avuga, n’uko ibice 27% vy’ubutaka bwemewe n’amakungu nk’ubugize igihugu cose ca Ukraine, ubu biri mu minwe y’Uburusiya.

Muri ico gice harimwo Crimea hamwe n’utundi duce two mu buseruko twafashwe n’Uburusiya mu 2014.

Biravugwa ko ubutegetsi bwa Moscow buriko bwitegurira kwivuna bwivuye inyuma mu karere ka Kursk, bukoresheje abasirikare bava muri Koreya ya Ruguru.

Ukraine yafashe igice c’ako karere mu kwezi kw’umunani, aho yajabuka mu gitero yagavye giturumbuka, kandi ica irahaguma gushika ubu, nka kimwe mu bishobora kuyifasha kwumvikana n’Uburusiya haramutse habaye ibiganiro.

Benshi mu bihweza utuntu n’utundi, n’abaserukira igisirikare babwiye BBC ko ubutegetsi bwa Kremlin buriko buranyaragasa gufata ubutaka mu kwitanga ibiganiro vyo gutanga agahengwe, mu gihe vyotangura Trump akimara gushika ku butegetsi mu kwa mbere kw’umwaka uza 2025.

Bikekwa ko perezida Putin yoba ashaka gushikira ku mbibe z’uturere twa Donetsk na Luhansk, canke mbere agafata n’uwundi mugwa mukuru w’akarere nka Zaporizhzhia.

None misire za ATACMS n' imitego y' ibisasu biterwa ku butaka vyohindura icerekezo?

Icemezo c’ubutegetsi bwa Biden buriko burasozera ikiringo, co kwemerera Ukraine gukoresha ibisasu vya misile ATACMS yahawe na Amerika birasa kure imbere mu gihugu mu Burusiya, vyatumye iyo ibintu bishobora gutera bija muri iyi ntambara bihinduka.

Ukraine yahawe ivyo bisasu vya ATACMS kuva kera muri iyi ntambara ariko yabikoresha mu gutera ingabo z’Uburusiya ziri muri Crimea no mu bice vyo mu buseruko, ivyo bice vyompi bikaba vyarifatiwe n’Uburuisya, n’ubwo ari ibice vy’ubutaka bwa Ukraine bwemewe n’amakungu.

Mu ntango z’iyi ndwi, perezida Biden yahaye ubutegetsi bwa Kiyv uburenganzira bwo gukoresha misire za Amereika mu gutera indani mu Burusiya, ivyo ibutegetsi bwa Moscow bwise ‘gusesa amavuta mw’itanure ry’umuriro’.

Abihweza utuntu n’utundi bavuga ko ATACMS, misire zishobora kugema kuri 300km, zizoha agahengwe Ukraine ariko zidashobora guhindukiza zerekeza ku mahirwe yo gutsinda iyi ntambara mu buryo bugaragara cane.

Kubwa bo, Uburusiya bwakoje kwitegurira ko bishobora gushika Ukraine ikemererwa gukoresha izo misire z’ubuhinga, kandi birashoboka ko bwaronse akanya ko kwimura ibikoresho vyabwo kure y’ahegereye urubibe na Ukraine.

Igitero ca mbere cakozwe na Ukraine yifashishije ibisasu vya ATACMS, cavuzwe ko cagemye ku 100km imbere mu Burusiya, kigema ububiko bw’ibirwanisho.

Leta zunze Ubumwe za Amerika zatangaje ko zafashe ingingo yo guha Ukraine n’ibisasu vya mines biterwa mw'ivu, ariko bakabanza kwumvikana ko ata handi bizokoreshwa atari ku butaka bwa Ukraine kandi kure y’ibibanza bibamwo abanyagihugu basanzwe.

Uburusiya bwakomeje gukoresha ibisasu bitegwa mw'ivu (anti-personnel mines) muri iyi ntambara.

Bitandukanye n’ibisasu Ukraine izohabwa na Amerika, bishobora kumara amayinga makeya gusa bikora, ivyo Uburusiya vyovyo bigumana ubushobozi bwo kwonona kugeza biteguwe canke biturikijwe.

Abanyagihugu ba Ukraine batari munsi ya 300 biravugwa ko bapfuye bazira ivyo bisasu mu myaka ibiri n’igice ishize iyi ntambara itanguye.

Amashirahamwe menshi aharanira agateka ka zina muntu, arimwo n’ishirahamwe Croix Rouge, yagumye avugira abantu, asemerera kubera iyo mitego y'ibisasu bitegwa abantu ku giti cabo, aho bavuga ko “bisiga ingaruka zikomeye cane zirimwo impfu, gukomeretsa no kubabaza abantu mu kiringo c’igihe kire kire.”

Leta zunze Ubumwe za Amerika zatanguye guhesha guha iyo mitego ya mines igihugu ca Ukraine gushika uyu munsi, ariko zayihaye ibisasu vyo mu bwoko bwa mines zitega imodokari z’imtamenwa.

Kimwe na ATACMS, ibi birwanisho birashobora gufasha ingabo za Ukraine gushobora kwihagararako aho gusatira zigaba ibitero.

impinduka mu biharuro vy'iperereza

N’ubwo ku rugamba bitoroheye kuri Ukraine, hari n’ivyahindutse ku bijanye n’ivyo abantu biyumvira mu kibano.

Abanyagihgu ba Ukraine bararuhishijwe n’intambara, kubera bama barakubitwa amabombe, gucika kw’umuyagankuba, no kumara imyaka hari amajoro badatora agatiro, ubu na ho bakaba bagiye kwicwa n’ubwoba bw’ibihe bikanye vy’ubukonje vyegereje.

Ibiharuro vy’iperereza bigaragaza iciyumviro c’uko hashobora gutangura ibiganiro vy’amahoro n’Uburusiya kiriko kirakura mu bantu, n’ubwo vyoba bisigura gutakaza igice c’ubutaka no kutamenya ibishobora gushika muri kazoza ka kure.

Kimwe mu vyirwa vyasuzumye ivyo vyiyumviro, cashizwe ahagaragara n’ikigo Razumkov Centre mu kwezi kw’icumi, cerekana ko umwe ku banya Ukraine batatu (1/3) bifuza ivyo biganiro, ugereranije n’uko vyari mu kiringo c’umwaka uheze. Aho bari umwe kuri batanu (1/5) gusa.

Ikindi cirwa cakozwe mu kwezi kw’icumi, cerekana ko abanya Ukraine batemeza ko bizeye neza ko igihugu cabo kizotsinda iyi ntambara nk’uko bavyibaza mbere, n’ ubwo abenshi muri bo ari abibaza ko Ukraine izotsinda uburusiya.

Kurindira 'umugambi wa Trump'

Inyuma y’intsinzi ya Donald Trump mu matora ya Amerika, abenshi bagumye barindiriye kwumva ivy’uwo mugambi wiwe w’amahoro.

Amajambo yiwe y’inyuma y’amatora yagarukira ku mungane atadoma urutoke kuco azokora nka: “Tuzokorana cane n’Uburusiya hamwe na Ukraine. Ibi bibwirizwa guhagarara. Uburusiya na Ukraine bibwirizwa guhagarara.”

Ibinyamakuru vyo muri Leta zunze Ubumwe za Amerika vyaratangaje ko Trump yoba yaravuganye kuri telefone na perezida Vladmir Putin, amugabisha ko intambara ishobora kuyangara, ariko ivyo ubutegetsi bwa Kremlin bwarabihakanye.

Abahinga kuri Ukraine bemeza ko mu gihe umugambi wa Trump utaramenyekana neza, umugwi wiwe woba umaze gushira hamwe ivyiyumviro kuri wo.

Bimwe mu vyiyumviro bisanzwe bihari, uko biri kose, birimwo guhosha izo ndyane kugeza aho ibintu biba birahagarara, nk’uko umuyobozi wa New Europe, ikigo c’ubusesanguzi kuri politike y’imigenderanire ya Ukraine, Alyona Hetmanchuk, abivuga.

“Kudindiza ibikorwa ku rugamba muri iyo ntambara. Kudindiza ikibazo co gusaba kwa Ukraine kuba umunywanyi wa OTAN / NATO, guhagarika ibintu vyose bikarindira”, ni ko Hetmanchuk abisobanura.

Abona ko iyo ngendo ataho yoba itaniye cane n’iyo ubutegetsi bwa Biden.

Ubutandukane, n’uko aba Demokarate bibaza ko Ukraine ari yo yari gutangura gusaba ibiganiro, aho kuba Leta zunze Ubumwe za Amerika, n’ubwo zari zemereye Ukraine ubufasha bw’amafaranga bwo mu gihe kire kire.

Ariko Trump we, bitandukanye n’aba Demokarate, yaramaze kwerekana icifuzo co gushiraho intumwa idasanzwe yiwe muri Ukraine, yohagarikira ibiganiro, ibibonwa n’ubutegetsi bwa Kiyv ko bitanga icizere ko ibintu bitera bija mu nzira nziza.

Mu kiringo ciwe ca mbere ku butegetsi, Trump yari afise uwumuserukira nk’uyo, Kurt Volker yahoze ari umu aserukira igihugu ciwe mu makungu.

Alyona Hetmanchuk yagize ati "Dukeneye uwuyobora ivyiyumviro vy’abandi, umu ‘mugabo nya mugabo wa Ukraine’ ashikira ugutwi kwa Trump buri kanya.

Mu gihe Ukraine n’Uburusiya bikirindiriye ko ubutegetsi butera intambwe za mbere ku bijanye n’iyi ntambara ibandanya, ikizwi coco ni kimwe; ibiganiro vy’amahoro uko vyoba bije kwose, bizoba bigoye kandi bizoba birebire. Ibihugu vyompi n’abategetsi bavyo, perezida Zelensky na Putin, bafisemwo inyungu nyinshi ko zino ndyane zirangira, kandi kazoza kabo kazoturuka ku buryo bitwaye mu biganiro.

Angelina Korba